frican National Congress deputy president Jacob Zuma leads the race for nominations for the post of party president with five provinces supporting him, to President Thabo Mbeki's four, SABC news reported on Sunday.

Zuma received overwhelming support from Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal on Sunday evening. In KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma got 580 votes, Mbeki nine. In Gauteng, Zuma walked away with 263 votes, Mbeki 94.

Zuma also garnered support from Mpumalanga, the Free State and the Northern Cape. The ANC Youth League also gave him their backing last week.

Mbeki won nominations the Eastern and Western Cape, Limpopo and the North West.

'I think he would mend fences with business very quickly'
Zuma received a total of 2270 votes, Mbeki 1396, the SABC reported.

ANC spokesperson Tiyani Rikhotso said the official results would be released on Monday, when the ANC Women's League would also announce its nomination.

According to the SABC, the KwaZulu-Natal nomination process erupted in chaos at the party's general council meeting in Durban. Delegates were reportedly bitterly divided over the removal of provincial Premier Sibusiso Ndebele and others seen as Mbeki loyalists from the list.

Political analyst Steven Friedman told Sapa on Sunday afternoon: "The results [so far]provide the first hard indication of how people are voting in the ANC."

It was the "hardest information" to date on how the 4075 ANC voting delegates would cast their secret ballots at the party's national conference in Polokwane, Limpopo, next month.

'We may see investors becoming nervous about inflation'
Independent political analyst Lawrence Schlemmer said the results were a "serious indication" of how things would go in Polokwane.

"There's a rough rule that applies: If your branch has decided, by a majority vote, the candidates who should be favoured, people... are under an obligation to carry that particular preference through to their final vote. It exercises... considerable leverage on the preferences of individuals.

"I wouldn't say it's necessarily a good, hard indication [of how ANC delegates will vote in Polokwane], but I'd say it was a serious [one]... it's a serious indication, is how I would see it," he said.

Asked if he thought Mbeki would call an early general election should he lose to Zuma, Schlemmer said he did not think this would happen.

"No, I don't think it will happen. It's not really in South Africa's political culture to be that responsive to the democratic climate. I think he [Mbeki] will hold out to see if he can't use the last months to increase his leverage and bargaining power," he said.

Friedman said he thought Mbeki would be under pressure to call an early election under these circumstances.

"I think... he [Mbeki] would be under pressure to call an early election, because it would create tensions. It would create problems within government; it would, I think, make his own position difficult.

"Whether he would actually do that or not, I don't know. Certainly there would be pressure to hold an election so you don't have a situation where the president of the country and the president of the party are different people... and political rivals," he said.

On Zuma becoming party president and moving on to become president of South Africa, and the impact this might have on investors, Friedman said that in the event of a Zuma presidency, he did not think there would be a "significant shift" in economic policy.

"Zuma has said this repeatedly. As far as the way in which investors would... respond, my guess is that... there could be a bit of a re-run of what happened when Trevor Manuel became finance minister.

"I think there will be a sharp reaction from investors initially, but I think that will calm down. He [Zuma] is already on a charm offensive to business; I would expect him to continue that."

Friedman said he did not think Zuma was as harsh towards big business as business thought he was.

"That's why I think that if he does become president of the country, I think he would mend fences with business very quickly," he said.

Schlemmer, asked if he though there might be a sharp reaction from investors in the event of Zuma becoming president of the ANC, and president of the country, said he did not think so, but expected there would be some change in economic policy.

In this regard, Zuma would be "constantly reminded that the South African Communist Party and the trade union movement, whether officially or otherwise, have been on his side".

That meant some things would definitely change.

"I would imagine... there'll be somewhat more reserve in the naked enrichment of party insiders, the way it's happening at the moment... I think that will have to be tempered, because it's not popular in the trade union movement."

Schlemmer sounded one warning.

"One of the things that is a real danger... is that there'll be very, very heavy pressure on the governor of the Reserve Bank not to raise interest rates, and we may see investors becoming nervous about inflation," he said.

Last week, University of Cape Town politics lecturer Zwelethu Jolobe told Sapa he believed that in the event of a two-way contest between Mbeki and Zuma, it was likely to be a neck-and-neck finish.

The only other time in the ANC's history where there had been a close finish was in 1940, where Dr AB Xuma won the presidency by one vote, he said.

However, the looming threat of corruption charges against Zuma could give Mbeki an edge in the last lap.

He was not convinced that Zuma, who had suffered a "damaging" two years since his dismissal as deputy president of the country, could win against an incumbent who did not face the same pressures from the legal system, and whose macro-economic policies were "very secure". - Sapa

* Gov too lenient on criminals

* Gov paying lip service to HIV (and should not be politicised)

* Gov too lenient on criminals
* Police not up to scratch/not being paid enough
* Gov paying lip service to HIV (and should not be politicised)
* Hold referendum to bring back death penal

I'm leaving if that retard comes to "power". Zimbabwe here we come, Mugabe the 2nd here we come.

Gov paying lip service to HIV (and should not be politicised)

I sure hope those are issues for all possible presidents. Who knows maybe he will surprise everyone...

UK is faaaar away sad.gif

Canada?

Surge, I've added a poll to the discussion, if you don't mind?

The UK will only be a stopover, i can't stand that country

By Michael Georgy

South African President Thabo Mbeki said on Tuesday he was still in the race to lead the ruling African National Congress after his rival Jacob Zuma gathered nominations from key groups and across provinces.

"If there are members of the ANC who nominate me for whatever position... I have got to respect that," he told South Africa's SABC television.

"When the ANC elections commission comes and says 'you have been nominated for president, are you available?' I will respect that, I will say yes of course I am available," Mbeki said.

'It was also a kind of decision about self renewal'
Mbeki's comments came after ANC branches in South Africa's nine provinces nominated their choice over the weekend to head the ruling party.

South African media reported Zuma won five of the nine provinces, while Mbeki won four. If Zuma wins the ANC presidency, he is almost assured of becoming South Africa's president in the 2009 elections.

Analysts say Mbeki, who is not allowed to run for re-election as state president at the next polls in 2009, wants to retain his ANC leadership to influence the country's politics and help pick his successor.

A bitter rivalry between Zuma and Mbeki has plunged the party into one of the worst crises in its history, and overshadowed crucial issues such as Aids, widespread poverty, and one of the world's highest crime rates.

The party goes into a December 16-20 meeting to select a new leader deeply split over Mbeki's policies, which have turned South Africa into an economic powerhouse.

'I think it was more than just electing Jacob Zuma'
Critics who back Zuma say a majority of the country's black population have not benefited from Mbeki's rule and that his policies have favoured big business.

Political analyst Susan Booysen said the decision by most ANC branches to nominate Zuma for party president may have marked a turning point for the party which led the struggle against apartheid.

"It was also a kind of decision about self renewal. I think it was more than just electing Jacob Zuma. It was a decision that said 'We want the ANC to be a bit different from what it has become over the last decade'," she said.

Mbeki, who has been described as a shrewd strategist, may be scrambling to break Zuma's momentum in the hope that senior party delegates will back him in a secret ballot at the last minute, analysts say.

Mbeki said in an interview with SABC the decision by most ANC branches to back Zuma would not weaken the government as he serves out his term as South African president until 2009.

"It certainly wouldn't have any impact ... in terms of the continued pursuit of the policy positions of the ANC," he said.

"I know for a fact that the masses of our people in the country continue to say 'our hope is the ANC' despite all the problems we have whether it's not enough houses and water and jobs and all of this."

# Business tycoon Tokyo Sexwale has thrown his weight behind African National Congress deputy president Jacob Zuma as both men cemented support in the most powerful voting bloc to go to the party's crucial Polokwane national conference.

The Daily Dispatch reported that around 1 500 supporters gathered in the small town of Ngcobo in the former Transkei on Tuesday, where Zuma addressed one of the last gatherings before the make-or-break meeting which starts on Sunday.

Addressing the crowds - which turned the Ngcobo sports grounds into a mass of black "100-percent Zuma" T-shirts - Zuma warned delegates to ensure that they "implement and execute the mandate from their branches".

'There is a time to lead and a time to follow'
"Your duty is to implement and execute the mandate of your branches, nothing else. No delegate has a right to change the decision of the branch when they get to Limpopo," Zuma said.

The Eastern Cape is sending the largest group of delegates with at least 886 representatives. This number might still grow to 906.

The country's former deputy president was apparently referring to allegations that the camp supporting President Thabo Mbeki was using increasing sleazy tactics in a drive to win over delegates, including offering money, business development opportunities and government jobs.

"If you change your decision you will be subverting democracy," Zuma said.

He added: "It is worrying that some people in the leadership are going out at night, trying to convince delegates by threatening and bribing them. It is worrying, comrades," Zuma said.

'Do not sell the mandate that has been given to you'
In his speech, Sexwale threw his weight behind Zuma.

"Where is my T-shirt?" he asked in reference to T-shirts worn by his supporters earlier this year that said "Tokyo for president".

"I know what happened to my T-shirt. It's the Zuma tsunami," Sexwale said.

Without referring to Mbeki by name, he said: "There is no leader that should be there forever. There is a time to lead and a time to follow."

Sexwale too urged delegates not sell their votes.

"Cadres, when you go to Limpopo you must be wary of people offering you money to buy away your vote. You should not be sell-outs. Do not sell the mandate that has been given to you by your branches."

One of the surprise guests at the rally was Nelson Mandela's grandson, Mandla Mandela, who arrived with hundreds of others at the Ngcobo sports grounds.

Supporters wore "100-percent Zuma" T-shirts and sang songs praising their candidate.

"I don't care who said what, Zuma is going to rule," the crowd chanted before going over into Zuma's familiar campaign song, Umshini Wami (Bring me my machine gun).

One of the supporters, 72-year-old Luyanda Siyaliwa, said he was here because he wanted change.

"I don't have anything against (President Thabo) Mbeki. He has done his bit," Siyaliwa told the Dispatch.

"But I support Zuma because I want change," he said as he proudly showed off his "100-percent Zuma" T-shirt.

Ziyanda Mahlutshana, 21, said she supported Zuma "because he is closer to the people than his president (Mbeki)".

"Also, Mbeki's policies... like allowing gay people to get married... do not make sense," she added. - Sapa

By Paul Simao

South Africa's ruling African National Congress elected Jacob Zuma as its new leader on Tuesday, dumping President Thabo Mbeki and putting the populist politician on course to lead the country in 2009.

Zuma, an ethnic Zulu, is a darling of the ANC rank and file in contrast to the intellectual Mbeki. His victory was greeted by cheers, fist-pumping and extended singing at a party conference as his supporters jumped onto chairs.

Fireworks exploded outside the conference tent.

But uncertainty over Zuma's policies and his strong left-wing backing have caused jitters among many investors.

Because of the ANC's electoral dominance, Zuma's victory means he is almost certain to succeed Mbeki as president when the head of state has to step down in 2009.

Electoral officials said Zuma took 2 329 of 3 834 votes cast. Mbeki, bidding for his third term as ANC leader, won 1 505 votes.

In a clean sweep for Zuma, the conference voted his allies onto all the other five positions on the party leadership.

Zuma smiled as he took his place on a stage at the party conference and Mbeki hugged him before walking away.

Zuma, backed by trade unions, went into the congress with huge momentum over Mbeki, who has become increasingly unpopular with the rank and file, who say he is autocratic and has moved too slowly to help millions of poor blacks.

Mbeki took control of the party from Nelson Mandela in 1997, succeeding him as head of state in 1999.

Markets fear Zuma could reverse Mbeki's centrist policies, which have fuelled the longest period of growth in Africa's economic powerhouse.

There are also concerns of a long period of uncertainty over the next 18 months until the 2009 election, with the presidency and party leadership split between two men and Zuma facing possible charges in a corruption case.

"We can anticipate this conflict extending over the next two years. It is going to be particularly precarious when Jacob Zuma gets charged, if he does get charged around the corruption scandal," said political analyst Adam Habib.

Legal authorities filed court documents this month they say contain new evidence that Zuma took bribes in connection with a multi-million-rand arms deal.

South Africa’s chief prosecutor said Thursday there was enough evidence to bring corruption charges against the Zulu politician Jacob G. Zuma, two days after his election as leader of the African National Congress put him in line to be the country’s next president.

The prosecutor, Mokotedi Mpshe, said on South African radio that a final decision on when to take action against Mr. Zuma was “imminent,” according to the BBC. “The investigation is complete,” Mr. Mpshe said, and loose ends were being tied up. “The type of evidence we have so far can be taken to court,” Mr. Mpshe told The Associated Press.

Prosecutors have long said that they were preparing to file new charges. But the comments Thursday come at a particularly sensitive time, just after he ousted South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki, as party leader and on the day of his closing victory speech at a national conference of the A.N.C.

In his speech, Mr. Zuma said there was a need to heal divisions within the party and tried to reassure international investors about the future direction of his leadership.

Mr. Zuma was dismissed from a high government office two years ago in a corruption case and was more recently acquitted of rape charges. The filing of new charges against him — particularly before his likely ascension to the presidency — would likely set off a long stretch of political turmoil in South Africa.